MLB Penalty Pointless

Quit crying about the damn draft picks!
Quit crying about the damn draft picks!

If one is to believe the paper of record in the city of St. Louis, and listen to the bellyaching coming from Clark Ave., one would think the Cardinals will not be able to play over .500 ball for the next 20 years after Rob Manfred, bigshot of baseball, “hammered” the Cardinals by pulling two first round draft picks and fining the Redbirds $2 million in fines for espionage.

Folks, baseball isn’t the NFL. First round draft picks are not that precious in baseball. Joe wrote about this earlier in the week. Now the stat geeks have weighed in and note the penalties issued by MLB basically amount to nothing, types Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight.com.

According to research conducted by The Baseball Analysts, a sabermetric blog run by Rich Lederer, the 56th and 75th picks in the MLB draft tend to produce about 4.9 wins above replacement over their careers. How much is that? Losing 5 WAR over, say, a 10-year span decreases the average team’s odds of winning at least one World Series in the decade by 1.4 percentage points.

Yet to read the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals were so “hammered” by MLB, they wouldn’t be allowed to sell beer at the ballpark much less field any minor league team.

Joe wrote this is nonsense earlier. The stat geeks back that up.

In other words, this is a built-in lazy excuse for Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak to use for the next decade to justify his job security.

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